Girl, Your Marginal Benefit Is Far Greater Than Your Marginal Cost
I am an avid amateur economist, as any regular reader would probably know. However, the only economics-related blog I follow on a semi-regular basis is the Freakonomics blog (authored by who else but the authors of Freaknomics, of course — Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner). I've written on Freakonomics and my interest in economics before, so I won't dwell on the subject, but before I plunge into my main rambling, I think I ought to recommend Freakonomics to anyone interested in how we can apply economic thinking to the problems of society or daily life. For the application of economics to more economic questions, The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford also makes excellent reading. (The feed for Harford's column in The Financial Times is one of the few I subscribe to.) Both books are targeted at a lay audience, so real economists will of course not be interested in these books.
The subject of today's rambling is a bit off the beaten path. While reading the Freakonomics blog, I stumbled on this hilarious (at least to me) song, apparently written and produced by a university student. Levitt criticised the song for its economic inaccuracies, and while suffering another sleepless night yesterday, I managed to think of several possible problems with the song's economics. Before proceeding further, here's a transcription of the lyrics:
Girl, being with you has always been so tough
With each passing minute, your marginal cost goes up
But my love is inelastic and it all belongs to you
I’m the only love producer, and my good is for you to consume
Because girl your marginal benefit far outweighs your marginal cost
Without our equilibrium baby, you know I’d be lost
Trapped inside this market I need you, to buy my love
Girl without your complementing goods, I’m not enough
Now you say that I’m producing, below my ATC
But I’m optimizing quantity baby, why can’t you see?
We could share this surplus, each and every day
If you would just buy my love, I’ll make my fixed costs go away
Baby I want to keep you for the long run, Oh yeah
I think our supply and demand, will become one…
Because girl your marginal benefit far outweighs your marginal cost
Without our equilibrium baby, you know I’d be lost
Long run equilibrium is no place for me
I need the profits of our love, to grow exponentially.
The first thing that should have struck me (but was ironically the last thing that did) is that there is a glaring inconsistency that even a non-economist should notice. The problem is that the good being produced is love, and love is being demanded by the protagonist's girlfriend. Since the girlfriend is a consumer, and not a good, it makes no sense for her to have a marginal benefit or marginal cost. Only goods and services have a marginal benefit and a marginal cost. It would be more accurate to say that the marginal benefit of producing love for her exceeds the marginal cost, but this obviously makes for poor songwriting.
Now, a brief digression into the subject of elasticity. The elasticity of a good measures how much the quantity demanded or supplied responds to a change in price. Whether we are looking at supply or demand is important, as otherwise elasticity is meaningless. Since the protagonist refers to the inelasticity of his love, we can presume that we are talking about the elasticity of supply. There isn't really a problem with the economic theory here, as the singer is saying that he will produce more love even if the cost of producing it goes up (the catch is that the production increases at a rate that is less than the rate of the cost increase — that's what "inelastic" means). Producing more, but at a lesser rate, makes perfect economic sense.
The catch, of course, is that elasticity is not really relevant if the supply curve shifts. Elasticity is only relevant when the market price of the good changes, and the only way this can change besides a shift in supply is a shift in demand. In other words, elasticity of supply only comes in when the demand curve shifts. Otherwise, if there is, say, a cost increase, the supply curve will shift to the left — and supply will actually decrease. In other words, the singer's economic theory is totally wrong here. When the marginal costs of being with his girlfriend increase, he will actually produce less love, not more. (Cleverly, the singer doesn't actually say that the total quantity of love produced will increase, but that's certainly the implication one would get from the song.)
The next lines go on to establish the market structure we have. It seems that the market for love is monopolised by one producer (the protagonist) and monopsonised by one consumer (his significant other). The "equilibrium" bit doesn't tell us much, since a free market will always achieve equilibrium, and presumably the government isn't interfering in the market for love by setting minimum prices, taxes, or the like. If the market is monoposonised (i.e. there is only one consumer), it makes sense that the singer needs his girl to buy his love.
The "complementing goods" part suggests that demand for the protagonist's love is derived demand — in other words, his love is being bought so it can be processed and combined with the consumer's own complementary goods, which are then sold on to someone else (either an end consumer or another producer). This is clearly a very odd relationship, perhaps one reminiscent of a Cyrano de Bergerac situation.
ATC stands for average total cost. I may be misunderstanding something, but if the producer wants to maximise productive efficiency (i.e. make the most of his resources), he should be producing on the average total cost curve, not below it. He definitely could produce more by producing at a point below the average total cost curve, but it would probably not be worth it — there's a good chance he would be making losses at this point.
On the other hand, he might aim for allocative efficiency instead — producing all the love his girlfriend wants. Perhaps the diagrams I am used to seeing don't represent the full range of possibilities, but I think this would be at a point above the average total cost curve — to be more precise, the point where marginal cost is equal to average revenue. Here's a photo of the diagrams from my notes; unfortunately I'm a bit of a lazy arse and thus can't be bothered to explain them, so this'll just be something for the economically-informed. (Note: AC, or average cost, is the same as average total cost.)

The singer says he is optimising quantity, but this is not the behaviour a monopolist would naturally take. (And in the first place, by achieving either productive or allocative efficiency and thus optimising quantity, he would be producing on or above the average total cost curve.) A monopolist typically behaves by producing a non-optimal quantity, and selling it at a very high price. (In the diagrams, the mark-up is represented by the vertical difference between the point where the marginal revenue and marginal cost curves intersect and the corresponding point on the average revenue curve.) The singer has to be rather altruistic, which either implies government intervention, or a monopolist who doesn't think of his own self-interest. Clearly, the latter is desirable.
Surplus, in microeconomical terms, refers to either the difference between the cost of producing a good and the price received (producer surplus) or the difference between the price that would be willingly paid for the good, and the price actually paid (consumer surplus). There's nothing particularly wrong with this terminology, as far as I can see.
The singer says his fixed costs will go away (at least, that's the implicit conclusion one would draw). Obviously, the girl is not waving a magic wand and making his fixed costs vanish by buying his love, so the revenue the singer earns covers his fixed costs. This implies he is either making a profit, or breaking even. (Total cost consists of fixed costs and variable costs; the latter cost varies with the quantity produced, while the former is fixed.) A producer making losses would be able to only partially cover fixed costs. This isn't especially surprising, since a monopoly always makes a profit.
"Long run" has a special meaning in economics, especially because the shapes and positions of curves can vary depending on whether we are looking at the short or long run. In competitive markets, for example, the freedom of entry and exit prevents producers from making a profit in the long run. In the long run, new producers will enter any market with potential profits, while others will exit markets where they make losses, and as a result, any potential profits are ground away by the competition. (If you're wondering why reality differs from theory so much, bear in mind the infamous John Maynard Keynes quote: "In the long run, we are all dead.") The monopolistic market structure, however, does not differ all that much between the short and long run. There's no reason to think the protagonist's partner will leave him (i.e. exit the market) in the long run.
The reference to supply and demand becoming one is a subtle reference to market equilibrium, where the quantity demanded and quantity supplied are equal. This is the different from the "long run equilibrium" mentioned at the end of the song, which is about the natural equilibrium position of the monopoly. At this point, there would be a non-optimal quantity, and non-optimal price.
The suggestion that the singer wants his profits to grow exponentially is a bit out of whack, however. The only way to grow profits would be to either raise prices, which would shrink his girlfriend's consumer surplus (not good), or to restrict quantity. Somehow, I'm not sure telling your girl you will increase your profits by reducing your supply of love to her is a very good idea. Furthermore, if the singer is truly intent on producing at an optimum quantity, he would actually be reducing his profits. Neither the point of productive or allocative efficiency would yield a greater profit than the long run equilibrium.
I know I've terribly overanalysed a simple and hilarious song, but I can't help it — I have nothing better to do with my life. I hope I've done something besides bored you out of your skull. Maybe you've even learnt a bit about economic theory. Or perhaps you've just learnt that I'm a nutcase. Whatever makes you happy, then. As The Beatles would say, all you need is love.
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johnleemk
Infernally Rambling Thoughtless Mind Head Administrator Posts: 948 IP Logged | Posted at 6:37:34 am Nov 2, 2005
One of the major problems I see facing modern medicine is the appropriate pricing of medicines. You see, it costs a lot to develop modern drugs - you not only have to pay for researching and marketing it, but also for test trials, etc. Furthermore, it also involves a lot of investment in time on the part of medical companies - a lot of time, on the scale of decades, even. If a drug doesn't pan out by say, not getting approval from the US Food and Drugs Administration, they may have wasted millions of dollars on nothing. As a result, medicinal companies need to charge higher and higher prices to recoup their costs. However, to be able to charge such high prices, the demand for the drug must not be very elastic (the customers must not be turned off by a huge rise in the price of the drug). And in a market where other drug companies can be selling similar medicines, demand tends to be rather, well, elastic. This makes it financially unfeasible to develop drugs, especially complicated ones like those for AIDS or cancer. After all, what's the point when your competitor will be selling the same drug as yours under a different name within a few months? You might call this market failure, but the market has done nothing wrong; it's just impossible to profit from developing complex drugs. Therefore, the governments of the world have stepped in to encourage drug development by awarding 20-year patents to drug discoverers. For 20 years, the company that discovered the drug will be the only one in control of who gets the drug - it's a monopoly. Now, this might be a good thing, except for the fact that once again, you've got the nasty market to contend with - the prices are high, remember? With diseases that affect mainly the poor, such as AIDS, this can cost millions of lives for the sake of a few dollars. Sure, you could argue that the government could step in, but how? If it forces companies to lower their prices, there will no longer exist any incentive to develop new drugs. If the government itself subsidises drugs, there will be an incredible cost to taxpayers that many would find unconscionable. (Hey, remember the prices were artificially jacked up by the gifting of a monopoly to the drug manufacturers?) Arguably, socialism has come full circle - the interference in the market has come back to bite socialists in the ass. (Even though the measure is pro-business, remember it interferes with the workings of a free market.) Some would argue that the monopoly is a natural monopoly, and that we should step aside and allow the free market to work. Such is the economic orthodoxy, but it's easy to say this to an audience of educated (and probably not dieing or starving) professionals. It's another thing to say this to the face of those who will face a struggle with cancer or AIDS for every day of the rest of their lives. A humane but practical solution has to be found. Of course, there are also the even more extremist who would question that statement. After all, worshipping the omnipotent, omniscient free market is the "in" thing of economics nowadays. However, anyone who has ever bothered to read and comprehend an undergraduate economics textbook knows such a "free market is always right" stance to not only be wrong but downright dangerous. The free market is a means to an end, not an end in itself. Economics teaches that the market exists only to produce and allocate goods and services. Once you have understood this, all the romance and mysticism of the free market are gone. But if you don't stop there and dig further into your undergraduate textbook, you'll find that the market isn't even always right when it comes to the distribution of goods and services - indeed, it can be horribly, horribly wrong. That's why the term "market failure" has been coined. The market fails when it allows a monopoly or oligopoly to erect barriers to entry, when it allows imperfect information, or when it allows externalisation of costs. The market is an imperfect tool - a good one, mind you, but nevertheless, rough around the edges. Thus, we return to the original question - how do we provide drugs at an affordable cost without stifling the incentive to research and manufacture such drugs? We've struck subsidies and the outright removal of the patent system without replacing it off our list, so what's next? One common solution is to lower the length of the patents so that the drug recipe will be released into the hands of other companies sooner. This is just tinkering with the system, and offers no real solution. Furthermore, by lowering the length of the patent, the incentive to research costly drugs will also dissipate somewhat. So we have to cross that one off our list. What's next? Well, here's a thought - an impractical one, but still a thought - drug bounties. Simply, governments would award the first one to come up with a drug that cures AIDS/cancer/whatever a certain amount of money, commensurate with the importance of the drug. This of course has its drawbacks - to be effective, the taxpayers will again have to open their wallets, and the price may be difficult to optimise (how do you know whether you're paying too much or too little for the cure for cancer?). So, as you can probably tell by now, there is no real answer. There's no solution - at least, one isn't anywhere in sight in the near future. Still, it's quite the challenge, and you mark my words - the man who discovers how to optimise the production and distribution of drugs will win the Nobel Prize in economics. It's quite simple - in this case, there has been no market failure. So now we just have to figure out how to stimulate costly drug production without the help of the market. Well, it's not that simple. But you get my point. |
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tanstaafl
Member Posts: 9 IP Logged | Posted at 1:31:12 pm Mar 16, 2007
How exactly does having an FTA reduce or discourage corrupt practices? Anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest that it is neutral or in some cases increases corruption http://www.counterpunch.com/vargas03122007.html As John has stated previously in an earlier post, there is really no conclusion that can be drawn at this time on the FTA that is currently being negotiated at this time. However, I am still uncomfortable with how many free trade proponents glibly dismiss the potential downsides without really delivering a solution on how these problems are supposed to be dealt with. As far as Malaysia is concerned, the last thing it needs right now social turmoil cause by economic disruptions given the "outstanding" calibre of our government and our politicians. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 12:24:03 pm Apr 10, 2007
The article in the Sun makes sweeping statements about the MUFTA without providing actual facts and figures. That is probably closer to "intellectual bankruptcy" than the FTA itself. Malaysia is currently in negotiations with the United States for a Free Trade Agreement (MUFTA) which is expected to ease the way for attracting more foreign direct investment to Malaysia. Amongst the issues being negotiated is the strengthening of intellectual property rights (IPR) in Malaysia. Even though Malaysia already has high standards of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) in the form of patents, trademarks and copyright, there is still a need to enhance the IP environment in order to recognize and reward research. In order to attract foreign investment in the R&D sector, it is important to understand that foreign corporations invest not to make simple products but to produce those with high elements of innovation, creativity and design. This will help to promote foreign direct investment as it makes Malaysia more attractive for foreign investors that have invested heavily in research. This is especially so in the pharmaceutical industry which has been identified as a key growth sector under the Third Industrial Master Plan (IMP3). US pharmaceutical companies spent US$55.2 billion on R&D in 2006 and there is a great possibility of a fraction of that amount that can be diverted to Malaysia with the FTA. (PhRMA news Feb 12, 2007) However, there are some unwarranted fears in the industry about the MUFTA provisions on IPR that will cause difficulties to local drug manufacturers who are mainly producing generic drugs. Such fears and apprehensions are largely misconceived because stronger intellectual property (IP) protection does not hurt local generic drug manufacturers or make them lose out. Instead the opportunities for them become better as it will attract investments from large pharmaceutical companies with resulting spin-offs to the local generic drugs manufacturers in terms of joint ventures, contract manufacturing and R&D. Even China, a nation hardly well-known for its IP laws, has actually passed regulations as early as 2002 to provide for 6 years of data exclusivity as from the date of marketing approval. In the “Regulations for Implementation of the Drug Administration Law,” effective September 2002, the definition of a new drug was modified in accordance with the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). The new Patent Law further harmonized China’s patent system with the rest of WTO member countries. In fact, China’s IP protection for pharmaceuticals has gradually been coming into conformity with international standards over the past several years. The result of China’s IPR strategy is clear with the who’s who of global pharmaceutical companies moving into China in a big way. Today, multinationals have over 600 joint ventures with local companies in China. AstraZeneca invested US$134 million in a manufacturing plant in Wuxi and is set to invest another US$100 million to open the AstraZeneca Innovation Centre China in 2009. It has a marketing arm that employs 2,500 people and has also created a division to support local clinical trials. Novartis is collaborating with the Shanghai Institute of Material Medical Research, a leading Chinese R&D institute and it is constructing a US$83 million site for drug production and development in Changshu. World leading pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly set up a research laboratory in cooperation with its Chinese partner Shanghai ChemExplorer in the Zhangjiang New and Hi-TechTechnological Park in Shanghai’s Pudong New District. World first-class research equipment has been installed in the lab and it has 230 scientists working in China. The China-based R&D team is the US-based firm’s largest R&D group overseas. Eli Lilly has also agreed to transfer its antibiotics manufacturing technology to leading Chinese company Hisun Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. The move is part of Eli Lilly’s US$70 million global initiative to address multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, in partnership with the World Health Organization. It also has a factory in adjacent Suzhou city, east China’s Jiangsu province. Meanwhile, Pfizer, has invested over US$500 million in China and will also set up a new R&D center in Shanghai with initial spending of US$25 million over the next few years. In 2002, GlaxoSmithKline (China) Investment Co. Ltd. (GSK) was officially established and became one of the largest multinational pharmaceutical companies in China. GSK has established five legal entities encompassing four manufacturing facilities (three are joint ventures) with a total registered capital of over US$230 million in China. It has offices in 29 major cities (including Hong Kong) with 2,800 employees nationwide. The various companies continue to create jobs and provide training for business managers and professional staff in the pharmaceutical industry, as well as provide business opportunities to local partners and medical professionals. GSK signed an agreement with China’s Simcere Pharmaceutical Group to manufacture and sell a cheaper version of its bird flu drug Relenza for use in poorer countries. The terms of the licensing deal allows Simcere to manufacture and sell zanamivir, the active ingredient in Relenza, in China, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and other less developed countries. Relenza, together with Roche’s antiviral Tamiflu, are the only drugs considered effective against the human form of H5N1 influenza, and would be the first line of defense in the event of a worldwide H5N1 influenza pandemic. Roche has two manufacturing plants in China, one of which is a high tech manufacturing facility in Shanghai producing the cancer medicine Xeloda and the transplantation medicine CellCept. Both Xeloda and CellCept are major medicines in the Roche portfolio. Xeloda is a tumour-activated oral chemotherapeutic agent used to treat breast and colorectal cancer. CellCept, used as a foundation for immuosuppression, helps transplant patients to live a longer and healthier life. Roche also opened its new R&D center in Shanghai which its fifth Pharma research site globally. The center will work with JiangJiang High Tech Park to promote the district to become a leading biomedical research based epicenter of drug research and discovery in China. In addition, it is working in collaboration with the two Chinese National Human Genome Centers to conduct genetic epidemiology studies to identify genetic predispositions to diseases such as diabetes or Alzheimer’s. Further more, like GSK, Roche is the maker of Tamiflu, an important bird flu vaccine and the company granted a first sub-license to Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group for the production of Tamiflu for pandemic use in China. If China can see tremendous benefit of stronger IP protection, certainly Malaysia should be able to recognize the advantages of it as well and not miss the golden opportunity that the MUFTA presents in attracting new FDI and helping us move up the value chain in innovation and R&D. Fears and apprehensions by our local generic drug makers are largely misconceived as the Government of Malaysia’s outlook on the pharmaceutical industry in general and the generics in particular is very bright. Instead of adopting a negative stance, one should first study the Third Industrial Master Plan 2006-2020 (IMP3) especially at pages 405-420 which clearly identified the pharmaceutical industry as one of the 20 target growth areas. The opportunities are tremendous for local generic drug manufacturers and their growth prospects are very positive. There were 235 pharmaceutical companies registered with the Drug Control Authority, Ministry of Health in 2005, 148 producing traditional medicines and 87 manufacturing modern medicines. The majority of the companies in the industry comprise small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mostly producing generic drugs. During the IMP2 period from 1996-2005, domestic investments in the pharmaceutical industry amounted to RM756.5 million or 75% of the total investment while foreign investments were valued at RM250.4 million. For this period, the domestic pharmaceutical market registered an average annual growth of 11 per cent. The sales of locally produced pharmaceutical products grew at an average annual rate of 10.8 per cent, from RM334 million in 1996 to RM852 million in 2005. Exports of pharmaceutical products grew at an average annual rate of 10.6 per cent, from RM194 million to RM494.3 million in 2005. This was a result of a significant expansion of production into a wider range of generic drugs with the expiry of more patented, branded pharmaceutical drugs. Generic versions of newly “off patented” products which are being developed and produced, include clavulanate, amoxicillin, omeprazole, ranitidine, loratadine, dexclorpheniramine, simvastatin and acyclovir. In a DataMonitor report cited by the IMP3, with an annual anticipated growth rate of 7.5 per cent for the period 2005-2010, the global pharmaceutical market is projected to increase from USD534.8 billion in 2005 to USD762.2 billion by the end of 2010. Patents of many drugs made by the US and European companies have either expired or will be expiring during the next few years. It is estimated that the patent expiry will involve about USD100 billion worth of branded drugs of major pharmaceutical companies. According to drug market research firm IMS Health, some USD16 billion worth of annual drug sales are expected to go off-patent in 2007 whereas in 2006, there was USD23 billion worth of patent expirations. Drugs with sales of USD160 billion are expected to come off patent by 2015, according to Datamonitor PLC (London, UK). Joanna Chertkow, a pharmaceutical lead analyst at Datamonitor said, “It is expected that the raft of blockbuster patent expiries that will occur over the next ten years will lead to a rise in the volume of the generics market.” This will create tremendous market opportunities for generics worldwide, which are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 10 per cent till 2011. For 2007, generics are expected to grow at the rate of 13 -14 per cent. Moreover, there is also the relatively unexplored market for bio-generics which is estimated to grow at an annual average rate of 70 per cent during the period 2007-2011 and will generate a total revenue of more than USD16 billion by 2011. For the IMP3 period, 2006-2020, investments in the pharmaceutical industry have been targeted at RM6.7 billion and exports are targeted to grow at an annual rate of 6.3 per cent to reach RM1.2 billion by 2020. Indeed, our local generic drug manufacturers should seek to be globally competitive as in the theme in the IMP3 and fully exploit the opportunities available instead of lamenting on the negatives. The several strategic thrusts as set out in the IMP3 must necessarily be studied as to how to gain a greater share of the global pharmaceutical market, which, inter alia, include the encouraging of further efforts on R&D and commercialization, enhancing the development of expertise in drug research and the strengthening of the institutional support in the development and promotion of the industry. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 12:43:23 pm Apr 10, 2007
The article in the Sun mentioned that farmers in Malaysia will suffer if the MUFTA is signed but there are no details provided. I remember some NGOs and other individual parties claimed in the press that our local farmers would be affected by the FTA, in that there will be an influx of rice from the US in the local market after the FTA and consequently affect local farmers. But in fact, this is not the case. In reality, rice production in Malaysia is not enough and we have to import 30 percent of our rice. This comes mainly from Vietnam which accounts for 420,000 tonnes or RM415 million worth of our rice import and from Thailand which accounts for some 300,00 tonnes of rice imports. This compares with only an import of 385 tonnes of rice from the US worth RM1.36 million. If at all, then Malaysian rice is in fact competing with the rice from Vietnam and Thailand as the grade is the same, and not with that from the US, which is of a different grade and caters mainly to the Japanese and Koreans in the country. Malaysian local white rice costs about RM2.20 per kilo while the rice from the US costs about RM10.25 per kilo. It is therefore clear that the rice from the US cannot compete with the local rice based on simple pricing and economics. |
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johnleemk
Infernally Rambling Thoughtless Mind Head Administrator Posts: 948 IP Logged | Posted at 1:23:48 pm Apr 10, 2007
Hm...nice research there, but your comments suspiciously resemble those of some government officials who have commented about the FTA, right down to the wording. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 1:34:34 pm Apr 11, 2007
The facts speak for themselves - plain and simple - not like those who mouth other sweeping, general and emotional statements. These facts don't get reported in full often enough as they are not sensational and do not help sell papers.It is more dramatic to say that FTA destroy lives and take away our sovereignty. Too often we forget how the Hong Kong economy was built. |
