Absolute vs Comparative Advantage
In any discussion of international economics, you are bound to encounter the principle of comparative advantage. Comparative advantage has been the underpinning of international economics since it was first expounded on by David Ricardo in 1817. Despite its importance, it is surprisingly not commonly known outside the circle of those educated in economics. This makes it especially difficult to evaluate the benefits of free trade - I have attempted to do this in the past without delving in depth into this topic (see Misunderstanding the Free Market and On Economic Freedom), but since it seems to me that I will refer to this principle in the future, a somewhat detailed explanation is in order.
If you have the time, the Wikipedia article I linked to in the first paragraph should be sufficient and quite interesting. If you do not, however, then I shall try to sum up comparative advantage as concisely as possible. I believe the principle of comparative advantage can be stated as:
As long as the ratio of the prices of two or more goods relative to each other differ, it is beneficial for a country to engage in trade.
To anyone who has studied international economics, this undoubtedly seems like a very simplistic definition. However, it is the best that I can think of.
Now, the proof of the principle: let us say Malaysia produces petroleum and computers. The United States also produces petroleum and computers. However, the United States can produce more computers than petroleum, while Malaysia can produce more petroleum than computers. As a result, the Malaysian cost of mining petroleum is $1 per barrel and the price of building computers is $10 per CPU (shall we say), while in the US, the price of petroleum is $10 per barrel and the price of a CPU is $1. Each country has $1000 to allocate to its economy. Malaysia can produce 1000 barrels of petroleum or 100 computers, while the US can produce 100 barrels or 1000 computers.
To recap, both Malaysia and the US combined can produce $1000 worth of petroleum and $1000 worth of CPUs, $2000 worth of petroleum, or $2000 worth of computers. In addition, they can also produce any combination of goods that fits the parameters we have just defined. Malaysia, for example, could produce one CPU and 990 barrels of petroleum. (Recall, the prices represent the allocation of resources within the economy to the production of each good.)
Now, should Malaysia and the US try to be self-sufficient, producing 500 barrels of petroleum and 50 CPUs (Malaysia) and 50 barrels of petroleum and 500 CPUs (the US)? According to the principle of comparative advantage, no. Trade is beneficial to both sides. If the US and Malaysia each specialise in one good, then they will have 1000 barrels of petroleum and 1000 computers. Then, each country can have 500 barrels of petroleum and 500 computers - or any other possible combination of these goods that they desire, as long as it is less than 1000 of each.
Now, this seems pretty simply. It's a no-brainer, right? But what if the US kicked Malaysia's ass in both petroleum mining and CPU production? What if they could produce petroleum at $0.01 per barrel and CPUs at $1 per computer, while Malaysia stagnated and did not innovate enough to lower its costs? Would trade still benefit both countries?
Under absolute advantage, which is the typical principle used by non-economists to evaluate the benefits of trade, the answer is no. After all, it seems to be common sense that Malaysia should struggle along by itself while the US reaps the benefits of its innovation. But under comparative advantage, we reach a different conclusion: trade must continue.
The reason is simple. The US can now produce 100,000 barrels of petroleum or 1000 CPUs, while Malaysia remains stuck at 1000 barrels and 100 CPUs. If they go it alone and the US produces 50,000 barrels and 500 CPUs, while Malaysia makes 500 barrels and 50 CPUs, the combined output of both countries will be 50,500 barrels and 550 CPUs. If Malaysia specialises and trades some of its CPUs with the US for petroleum, however, then the same figures will be 50,000 barrels and 500 CPUs (the US) and 0 barrels and 100 CPUs (Malaysia). Combined output of oil is slightly lower, but it has been compensated for by the increase in CPU output. Malaysia can now take 50 of its CPUs (worth $50 in the US) and trade them to the US for $50 (US prices again) worth of oil, or 5000 barrels worth of oil. End result: Malaysia has the same number of CPUs it started with under the no-trade scenario, but now has 4500 more barrels of oil. The US has 5000 barrels less than it started with, but it has 50 CPUs, so it has lost nothing.
You can play this scenario out with different parameters, but no matter what, comparative advantage holds as true as 1 + 1 = 2. Even if the terms of the trade deal are less advantageous to Malaysia, it remains beneficial for Malaysia to trade with the US. The worst case scenario under comparative advantage is that only one party gains while the other stays the same (in the scenario above it is the US that ends up with the same value of goods it originally had), and this is an extreme. Often, you find that both parties will benefit from some trade arrangement because they can produce more combined than by attempting to be self-sufficient.
If this has you befuddled, you can try working it out on pen and paper. But even if you don't get it, take heart. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson has remarked that the principle of comparative advantage is one of the most difficult to grasp:
That it is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that it is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them.
Nevertheless, it is a mathematical surety that the principle of comparative advantage holds. Unless the countries involved in the transaction are perfectly homogenous (same costs of production, same amount of resources, etc.), it is always better for countries to trade than to go it alone.
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johnleemk
Infernally Rambling Thoughtless Mind Head Administrator Posts: 948 IP Logged | Posted at 6:37:34 am Nov 2, 2005
One of the major problems I see facing modern medicine is the appropriate pricing of medicines. You see, it costs a lot to develop modern drugs - you not only have to pay for researching and marketing it, but also for test trials, etc. Furthermore, it also involves a lot of investment in time on the part of medical companies - a lot of time, on the scale of decades, even. If a drug doesn't pan out by say, not getting approval from the US Food and Drugs Administration, they may have wasted millions of dollars on nothing. As a result, medicinal companies need to charge higher and higher prices to recoup their costs. However, to be able to charge such high prices, the demand for the drug must not be very elastic (the customers must not be turned off by a huge rise in the price of the drug). And in a market where other drug companies can be selling similar medicines, demand tends to be rather, well, elastic. This makes it financially unfeasible to develop drugs, especially complicated ones like those for AIDS or cancer. After all, what's the point when your competitor will be selling the same drug as yours under a different name within a few months? You might call this market failure, but the market has done nothing wrong; it's just impossible to profit from developing complex drugs. Therefore, the governments of the world have stepped in to encourage drug development by awarding 20-year patents to drug discoverers. For 20 years, the company that discovered the drug will be the only one in control of who gets the drug - it's a monopoly. Now, this might be a good thing, except for the fact that once again, you've got the nasty market to contend with - the prices are high, remember? With diseases that affect mainly the poor, such as AIDS, this can cost millions of lives for the sake of a few dollars. Sure, you could argue that the government could step in, but how? If it forces companies to lower their prices, there will no longer exist any incentive to develop new drugs. If the government itself subsidises drugs, there will be an incredible cost to taxpayers that many would find unconscionable. (Hey, remember the prices were artificially jacked up by the gifting of a monopoly to the drug manufacturers?) Arguably, socialism has come full circle - the interference in the market has come back to bite socialists in the ass. (Even though the measure is pro-business, remember it interferes with the workings of a free market.) Some would argue that the monopoly is a natural monopoly, and that we should step aside and allow the free market to work. Such is the economic orthodoxy, but it's easy to say this to an audience of educated (and probably not dieing or starving) professionals. It's another thing to say this to the face of those who will face a struggle with cancer or AIDS for every day of the rest of their lives. A humane but practical solution has to be found. Of course, there are also the even more extremist who would question that statement. After all, worshipping the omnipotent, omniscient free market is the "in" thing of economics nowadays. However, anyone who has ever bothered to read and comprehend an undergraduate economics textbook knows such a "free market is always right" stance to not only be wrong but downright dangerous. The free market is a means to an end, not an end in itself. Economics teaches that the market exists only to produce and allocate goods and services. Once you have understood this, all the romance and mysticism of the free market are gone. But if you don't stop there and dig further into your undergraduate textbook, you'll find that the market isn't even always right when it comes to the distribution of goods and services - indeed, it can be horribly, horribly wrong. That's why the term "market failure" has been coined. The market fails when it allows a monopoly or oligopoly to erect barriers to entry, when it allows imperfect information, or when it allows externalisation of costs. The market is an imperfect tool - a good one, mind you, but nevertheless, rough around the edges. Thus, we return to the original question - how do we provide drugs at an affordable cost without stifling the incentive to research and manufacture such drugs? We've struck subsidies and the outright removal of the patent system without replacing it off our list, so what's next? One common solution is to lower the length of the patents so that the drug recipe will be released into the hands of other companies sooner. This is just tinkering with the system, and offers no real solution. Furthermore, by lowering the length of the patent, the incentive to research costly drugs will also dissipate somewhat. So we have to cross that one off our list. What's next? Well, here's a thought - an impractical one, but still a thought - drug bounties. Simply, governments would award the first one to come up with a drug that cures AIDS/cancer/whatever a certain amount of money, commensurate with the importance of the drug. This of course has its drawbacks - to be effective, the taxpayers will again have to open their wallets, and the price may be difficult to optimise (how do you know whether you're paying too much or too little for the cure for cancer?). So, as you can probably tell by now, there is no real answer. There's no solution - at least, one isn't anywhere in sight in the near future. Still, it's quite the challenge, and you mark my words - the man who discovers how to optimise the production and distribution of drugs will win the Nobel Prize in economics. It's quite simple - in this case, there has been no market failure. So now we just have to figure out how to stimulate costly drug production without the help of the market. Well, it's not that simple. But you get my point. |
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tanstaafl
Member Posts: 9 IP Logged | Posted at 1:31:12 pm Mar 16, 2007
How exactly does having an FTA reduce or discourage corrupt practices? Anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest that it is neutral or in some cases increases corruption http://www.counterpunch.com/vargas03122007.html As John has stated previously in an earlier post, there is really no conclusion that can be drawn at this time on the FTA that is currently being negotiated at this time. However, I am still uncomfortable with how many free trade proponents glibly dismiss the potential downsides without really delivering a solution on how these problems are supposed to be dealt with. As far as Malaysia is concerned, the last thing it needs right now social turmoil cause by economic disruptions given the "outstanding" calibre of our government and our politicians. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 12:24:03 pm Apr 10, 2007
The article in the Sun makes sweeping statements about the MUFTA without providing actual facts and figures. That is probably closer to "intellectual bankruptcy" than the FTA itself. Malaysia is currently in negotiations with the United States for a Free Trade Agreement (MUFTA) which is expected to ease the way for attracting more foreign direct investment to Malaysia. Amongst the issues being negotiated is the strengthening of intellectual property rights (IPR) in Malaysia. Even though Malaysia already has high standards of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) in the form of patents, trademarks and copyright, there is still a need to enhance the IP environment in order to recognize and reward research. In order to attract foreign investment in the R&D sector, it is important to understand that foreign corporations invest not to make simple products but to produce those with high elements of innovation, creativity and design. This will help to promote foreign direct investment as it makes Malaysia more attractive for foreign investors that have invested heavily in research. This is especially so in the pharmaceutical industry which has been identified as a key growth sector under the Third Industrial Master Plan (IMP3). US pharmaceutical companies spent US$55.2 billion on R&D in 2006 and there is a great possibility of a fraction of that amount that can be diverted to Malaysia with the FTA. (PhRMA news Feb 12, 2007) However, there are some unwarranted fears in the industry about the MUFTA provisions on IPR that will cause difficulties to local drug manufacturers who are mainly producing generic drugs. Such fears and apprehensions are largely misconceived because stronger intellectual property (IP) protection does not hurt local generic drug manufacturers or make them lose out. Instead the opportunities for them become better as it will attract investments from large pharmaceutical companies with resulting spin-offs to the local generic drugs manufacturers in terms of joint ventures, contract manufacturing and R&D. Even China, a nation hardly well-known for its IP laws, has actually passed regulations as early as 2002 to provide for 6 years of data exclusivity as from the date of marketing approval. In the “Regulations for Implementation of the Drug Administration Law,” effective September 2002, the definition of a new drug was modified in accordance with the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). The new Patent Law further harmonized China’s patent system with the rest of WTO member countries. In fact, China’s IP protection for pharmaceuticals has gradually been coming into conformity with international standards over the past several years. The result of China’s IPR strategy is clear with the who’s who of global pharmaceutical companies moving into China in a big way. Today, multinationals have over 600 joint ventures with local companies in China. AstraZeneca invested US$134 million in a manufacturing plant in Wuxi and is set to invest another US$100 million to open the AstraZeneca Innovation Centre China in 2009. It has a marketing arm that employs 2,500 people and has also created a division to support local clinical trials. Novartis is collaborating with the Shanghai Institute of Material Medical Research, a leading Chinese R&D institute and it is constructing a US$83 million site for drug production and development in Changshu. World leading pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly set up a research laboratory in cooperation with its Chinese partner Shanghai ChemExplorer in the Zhangjiang New and Hi-TechTechnological Park in Shanghai’s Pudong New District. World first-class research equipment has been installed in the lab and it has 230 scientists working in China. The China-based R&D team is the US-based firm’s largest R&D group overseas. Eli Lilly has also agreed to transfer its antibiotics manufacturing technology to leading Chinese company Hisun Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. The move is part of Eli Lilly’s US$70 million global initiative to address multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, in partnership with the World Health Organization. It also has a factory in adjacent Suzhou city, east China’s Jiangsu province. Meanwhile, Pfizer, has invested over US$500 million in China and will also set up a new R&D center in Shanghai with initial spending of US$25 million over the next few years. In 2002, GlaxoSmithKline (China) Investment Co. Ltd. (GSK) was officially established and became one of the largest multinational pharmaceutical companies in China. GSK has established five legal entities encompassing four manufacturing facilities (three are joint ventures) with a total registered capital of over US$230 million in China. It has offices in 29 major cities (including Hong Kong) with 2,800 employees nationwide. The various companies continue to create jobs and provide training for business managers and professional staff in the pharmaceutical industry, as well as provide business opportunities to local partners and medical professionals. GSK signed an agreement with China’s Simcere Pharmaceutical Group to manufacture and sell a cheaper version of its bird flu drug Relenza for use in poorer countries. The terms of the licensing deal allows Simcere to manufacture and sell zanamivir, the active ingredient in Relenza, in China, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and other less developed countries. Relenza, together with Roche’s antiviral Tamiflu, are the only drugs considered effective against the human form of H5N1 influenza, and would be the first line of defense in the event of a worldwide H5N1 influenza pandemic. Roche has two manufacturing plants in China, one of which is a high tech manufacturing facility in Shanghai producing the cancer medicine Xeloda and the transplantation medicine CellCept. Both Xeloda and CellCept are major medicines in the Roche portfolio. Xeloda is a tumour-activated oral chemotherapeutic agent used to treat breast and colorectal cancer. CellCept, used as a foundation for immuosuppression, helps transplant patients to live a longer and healthier life. Roche also opened its new R&D center in Shanghai which its fifth Pharma research site globally. The center will work with JiangJiang High Tech Park to promote the district to become a leading biomedical research based epicenter of drug research and discovery in China. In addition, it is working in collaboration with the two Chinese National Human Genome Centers to conduct genetic epidemiology studies to identify genetic predispositions to diseases such as diabetes or Alzheimer’s. Further more, like GSK, Roche is the maker of Tamiflu, an important bird flu vaccine and the company granted a first sub-license to Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group for the production of Tamiflu for pandemic use in China. If China can see tremendous benefit of stronger IP protection, certainly Malaysia should be able to recognize the advantages of it as well and not miss the golden opportunity that the MUFTA presents in attracting new FDI and helping us move up the value chain in innovation and R&D. Fears and apprehensions by our local generic drug makers are largely misconceived as the Government of Malaysia’s outlook on the pharmaceutical industry in general and the generics in particular is very bright. Instead of adopting a negative stance, one should first study the Third Industrial Master Plan 2006-2020 (IMP3) especially at pages 405-420 which clearly identified the pharmaceutical industry as one of the 20 target growth areas. The opportunities are tremendous for local generic drug manufacturers and their growth prospects are very positive. There were 235 pharmaceutical companies registered with the Drug Control Authority, Ministry of Health in 2005, 148 producing traditional medicines and 87 manufacturing modern medicines. The majority of the companies in the industry comprise small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mostly producing generic drugs. During the IMP2 period from 1996-2005, domestic investments in the pharmaceutical industry amounted to RM756.5 million or 75% of the total investment while foreign investments were valued at RM250.4 million. For this period, the domestic pharmaceutical market registered an average annual growth of 11 per cent. The sales of locally produced pharmaceutical products grew at an average annual rate of 10.8 per cent, from RM334 million in 1996 to RM852 million in 2005. Exports of pharmaceutical products grew at an average annual rate of 10.6 per cent, from RM194 million to RM494.3 million in 2005. This was a result of a significant expansion of production into a wider range of generic drugs with the expiry of more patented, branded pharmaceutical drugs. Generic versions of newly “off patented” products which are being developed and produced, include clavulanate, amoxicillin, omeprazole, ranitidine, loratadine, dexclorpheniramine, simvastatin and acyclovir. In a DataMonitor report cited by the IMP3, with an annual anticipated growth rate of 7.5 per cent for the period 2005-2010, the global pharmaceutical market is projected to increase from USD534.8 billion in 2005 to USD762.2 billion by the end of 2010. Patents of many drugs made by the US and European companies have either expired or will be expiring during the next few years. It is estimated that the patent expiry will involve about USD100 billion worth of branded drugs of major pharmaceutical companies. According to drug market research firm IMS Health, some USD16 billion worth of annual drug sales are expected to go off-patent in 2007 whereas in 2006, there was USD23 billion worth of patent expirations. Drugs with sales of USD160 billion are expected to come off patent by 2015, according to Datamonitor PLC (London, UK). Joanna Chertkow, a pharmaceutical lead analyst at Datamonitor said, “It is expected that the raft of blockbuster patent expiries that will occur over the next ten years will lead to a rise in the volume of the generics market.” This will create tremendous market opportunities for generics worldwide, which are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 10 per cent till 2011. For 2007, generics are expected to grow at the rate of 13 -14 per cent. Moreover, there is also the relatively unexplored market for bio-generics which is estimated to grow at an annual average rate of 70 per cent during the period 2007-2011 and will generate a total revenue of more than USD16 billion by 2011. For the IMP3 period, 2006-2020, investments in the pharmaceutical industry have been targeted at RM6.7 billion and exports are targeted to grow at an annual rate of 6.3 per cent to reach RM1.2 billion by 2020. Indeed, our local generic drug manufacturers should seek to be globally competitive as in the theme in the IMP3 and fully exploit the opportunities available instead of lamenting on the negatives. The several strategic thrusts as set out in the IMP3 must necessarily be studied as to how to gain a greater share of the global pharmaceutical market, which, inter alia, include the encouraging of further efforts on R&D and commercialization, enhancing the development of expertise in drug research and the strengthening of the institutional support in the development and promotion of the industry. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 12:43:23 pm Apr 10, 2007
The article in the Sun mentioned that farmers in Malaysia will suffer if the MUFTA is signed but there are no details provided. I remember some NGOs and other individual parties claimed in the press that our local farmers would be affected by the FTA, in that there will be an influx of rice from the US in the local market after the FTA and consequently affect local farmers. But in fact, this is not the case. In reality, rice production in Malaysia is not enough and we have to import 30 percent of our rice. This comes mainly from Vietnam which accounts for 420,000 tonnes or RM415 million worth of our rice import and from Thailand which accounts for some 300,00 tonnes of rice imports. This compares with only an import of 385 tonnes of rice from the US worth RM1.36 million. If at all, then Malaysian rice is in fact competing with the rice from Vietnam and Thailand as the grade is the same, and not with that from the US, which is of a different grade and caters mainly to the Japanese and Koreans in the country. Malaysian local white rice costs about RM2.20 per kilo while the rice from the US costs about RM10.25 per kilo. It is therefore clear that the rice from the US cannot compete with the local rice based on simple pricing and economics. |
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johnleemk
Infernally Rambling Thoughtless Mind Head Administrator Posts: 948 IP Logged | Posted at 1:23:48 pm Apr 10, 2007
Hm...nice research there, but your comments suspiciously resemble those of some government officials who have commented about the FTA, right down to the wording. |
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jasoneight
Member Posts: 3 IP Logged | Posted at 1:34:34 pm Apr 11, 2007
The facts speak for themselves - plain and simple - not like those who mouth other sweeping, general and emotional statements. These facts don't get reported in full often enough as they are not sensational and do not help sell papers.It is more dramatic to say that FTA destroy lives and take away our sovereignty. Too often we forget how the Hong Kong economy was built. |
