Infernal Ramblings
A Malaysian Perspective on Politics, Society and Economics

Blood for Oil? What About Nukes?

Written by johnleemk on 10:07:10 am Mar 4, 2007.
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An anonymous reader does not mince his words. Criticising American foreign policy in response to The War Drums Beat for Iran, he writes:

If Iran is as void of natural resources as Rwanda or Somalia, the Americans would steer a thousand miles clear of it. Even if the Ayatollahs and mullahs begged them to come

Unfortunately, I think he seems to be suffering from a rabid case of anti-Americanism. Of course the Americans are motivated by self-interest, and it's ridiculous to deny that they aren't tempted by all the oil in the Middle East — but pretending that oil is the only fact seems quite off the mark to me.

First of all, you have to distinguish between the American government and the American people. The government might be interested in the oil, but most Americans I've talked to who support military intervention in the Middle East aren't.

Rather, the American people seem to believe in military intervention for two reasons. The first is plainly self-interest; they believe that Iraq posed and Iran poses a major military threat to the US. The other is more altruistic; they want to spread their brand of democracy and enlightenment to the Middle East.

It is difficult to speculate about the motivations of the American government, but I would argue that even if oil is a major factor in their deliberations, it is far from the only factor.

After all, consider that the Middle East is overwhelmingly Muslim. If you favour an interpretation of geopolitics based on a clash of the cultures, you would view this as a major factor in the overwhelmingly Christian United States' decisions. Certainly, religion appears to have played a strong role in the unwavering American support for Israel.

And, of course, the issue that I kept harping upon in the original Iran article is nuclear weapons. Remember, the stated reason for invading Iraq was the non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and there's no reason to believe that many (if not all) members of the Bush administration believed in this rationale. Why should things be any different for Iran?

If an authoritarian theocracy whose President has threatened to wipe another sovereign nation off the map gets its hands on nuclear weapons, I think it would be a major cause for concern. This is especially so since Iran is predominantly Muslim, and thus a possible contributor to Muslim fundamentalist terrorism.

Even if you take oil out of the equation, there are a myriad number of reasons for why the Americans would still be interested in sabre-rattling with Iran. After all, the Americans played the same game with the barren North Korea, though they recently and prudently secured a deal to curtail further development of nuclear arms by the North Koreans.

I think we cannot allow our overwhelming anti-American bias to get in the way of reason. The US may be horridly misguided and misled, but its motives are often good, and natural resources are just one of many factors in determining its foreign policy.


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Related comments from forum thread "War in Iraq":
johnleemk
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Posted at 1:27:46 pm Aug 25, 2005
Do you support the war or are you against it?

I support the war because I believe it's good to topple dictators and totalitarian regimes. However, I think Bush and the American government screwed the war and its reputation by basing their argument for the war on WMDs, when no such things exist in Iraq. I also think that because of the limited number of troops in Iraq, the soldiers get picked off too easily. The resistance won't be able to hit back as easily if there are enough soldiers to kick their asses every time they attack.
Last five replies (3 comments not shown):
rajanr
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Posted at 4:03:14 am Mar 7, 2007
The problems America faces right now in Iraq and to the lesser extend Afghanistan is probably less to do with the fact they were striving for the impossible, but rather the Bush administration messed up, big time.

<blockquote>
The Americans should work to encourage democracy to sprout up where it is already showing signs of possibly taking root, such as in Lebanon or Palestine, instead of trying to foster an artificial democracy where none is to be found, such as in Iraq.</blockquote>

The thing is if America had the same idea some 60 years ago, Japan would not be democratic. The problem with Iraq's polity isn't democracy - its the very country itself. Yes, having a strongman like Hussein can deal with many of the problems Iraqi democracy currently faces but that isn't much of a solution.

The problem with Iraq is that it have never been a proper nation - its three in one. Multiracialism may well be a good thing (I think it is), but if Iraqis don't want to handle it, forcing Iraq as a united polity is bound to fail.

Another problem is actually allowing European technocrats to influence the writing of the Iraqi constitution, and this can be clearly seen with proportional representation and an almost German style of federalism.

The current system of governance in Iraq today contributes to the problem because it encourages sectarian parties in such a climate as Iraq. Instead, if there were single-member constituencies, elections would become much more a local event.

At local level, people would be more interested in things that directly affect them - the economy, security, etc., and politicians more interested in them (you can't engage in rent-seeking to get unto a party list, after all, if there isn't one). More than that, if for example a Sunni is voting in a Sunni-majority constituency - ost of the choices may well be Sunni. So it does not necessary mean a Sunni party would win - a Sunni from a secular, non-sectarian party may win.

But I'm digressing.

The problem with Iraq and Afghanistan isn't war itself, but how it was conducted. It would seem America post-Vietnam War has a certain tendency to lose wars.
johnleemk
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Posted at 10:30:20 am Mar 7, 2007
The problems America faces right now in Iraq and to the lesser extend Afghanistan is probably less to do with the fact they were striving for the impossible, but rather the Bush administration messed up, big time.

Haha, that of course is the truth. The war was prosecuted in one of (if not) the worst possible ways.

The thing is if America had the same idea some 60 years ago, Japan would not be democratic. The problem with Iraq's polity isn't democracy - its the very country itself. Yes, having a strongman like Hussein can deal with many of the problems Iraqi democracy currently faces but that isn't much of a solution.

Thing is, the Japs had a history of being keen to adopt Western ideas when it was proven that they worked. Unlike many Asians, the Japanese had no hang-ups about adopting good ideas, no matter what their source was. (And in some cases, how good these ideas were is questionable - I still go "WTF" every time I see a picture of the Japanese surrendering to the Americans in top hats.)

The Iraqis, on the other hand, haven't exactly shown a predilection towards accepting foreign, especially non-Muslim (let alone Western) ideas and ideals. Of all the places in the world to plant democracy, Iraq was possibly one of the worst. If the US wanted to apply domino theory to the Middle East, it should have worked its way up, such as from Lebanon.

The problem with Iraq is that it have never been a proper nation - its three in one. Multiracialism may well be a good thing (I think it is), but if Iraqis don't want to handle it, forcing Iraq as a united polity is bound to fail.

Agreed.

Another problem is actually allowing European technocrats to influence the writing of the Iraqi constitution, and this can be clearly seen with proportional representation and an almost German style of federalism.

The current system of governance in Iraq today contributes to the problem because it encourages sectarian parties in such a climate as Iraq. Instead, if there were single-member constituencies, elections would become much more a local event.

I'm not well-informed about the influence of German technocrats on the Iraqi Constitution, but it seems to me that proportional representation, etc. are good ideas once the country and its institutions are off the ground. Forcing these things on them while they're just starting out as a democracy seems pretty silly, since these principles assume a history of the rule of law and a widespread understanding of how democracy works.

Single-member constituencies would also be a good idea, I think, although I understand the rationale for not having them. Whatever the case, it's clear that the present policies aren't working.

The problem with Iraq and Afghanistan isn't war itself, but how it was conducted. It would seem America post-Vietnam War has a certain tendency to lose wars.

Amen to Afghanistan. A half-amen to Iraq - I'm not wholly convinced the US should have gone in, but it wasn't that horrid an idea. What made it a horrid idea was the fact that Bush was doing it - it's almost impossible to name a single foreign policy success of his, aside from some sporadic victories early on in the "War on Terror".
azrael
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Posted at 4:03:04 am Dec 20, 2007
I do support the War in Iraq, as well as Bush and his current administration. I think Bush has had a lot to deal with as a President, even with his father being a former one himself. Just 11 months into his Presidency, Bush had to deal with 9/11, initiate the invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq, and later; Katrina, without much foreign help both politically, and financially.

The U.S., to me, is the sole country with the balls and the ability to police the world--and thank God they do.

As for the Iraq War, the U.S. & U.N. have been conducting "dialogue" with Saddam since the end of the first Gulf War, that is, from the end of that war till the invasion of Iraq, an astounding 12 years of "dialogue". Not to mention the dog and pony show played out by the Baath party of we have/don't have WMD's.

Also, just before the war, the international media were, on a daily basis, annoucing that oh, the inspectors are coming, the inspectors are coming, day in and day out--one would think that it wouldn't be hard to mobilise a stockpile of weapons around an area the size of California (approx. size of Iraq), furthermore having the home advantage, and, support from neighbouring states. So what were these inspectors to do? I don't know, but they said they didn't find anything. The definitely weren't investigators, just inspectors, and I don't think they could have done the P.I work even if they wanted to. They said they couldn't find it, and everyone assumes there were none in the first place. Would it be logical to assume that? Maybe. But let's say my wife misplaced my keys the other day, but doesn't remember where she placed it, or maybe was just being cheeky and hiding it away from me. I searched all over the house, the garden, the car, but I just couldn't find it. Now, I couldn't find it, but that doesn't mean it never existed in the first place.

So along came the U.S., saying we're here to enfore U.N. Resolution 1441 once and for all--and of course you know what the French, Germans and Russians said.

Just my two cents.

p/s: this man says it better, and with more authority. <http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110003053>
johnleemk
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Posted at 1:32:23 pm Dec 20, 2007
The problem with that logic is that we know of countries such as North Korea and Iran which pose even more plausible threats than Iraq did in 2003, but we aren't doing anything militarily about them. (A recent intelligence report shows Iran has halted work on developing nuclear weapons, but also shows that they were working on them.) To date, no evidence has been found that Saddam was getting anywhere close to a working nuke (unlike Iran and North Korea).

Also note that North Korea setting off a nuclear war would be far more devastating than Iraq, despite oil. They would plausibly destroy South Korea, one of the most prosperous East Asian economies, and disrupt China, also a major economic player. America also has bases in South Korea, whereas their only major military presence in the Middle East in 2003 was Saudi Arabia.

The most d***ing indictment of the Bush administration in this area, though, is their failure to plan for mopping up after the war, and the evidence that they were actively looking for a reason to take out Saddam, and WMDs just happened to be the most convenient and plausible (if ultimately false) reason.
azrael
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Posted at 9:30:09 pm Dec 20, 2007
My take on North Korea is that other militarily powerful countries like Russia and China should collaborate to keep it in check rather than solely rely on the auspices of the apparently bottomless well of U.S. money and goodwill to police the world. But they don't. Why? Might I suggest that maybe they want to curry favour with the Democratic (what a joke) People's Republic of Korea to polarise the geopolitic landscape more (taking into account Russian and Chinese sabre-rattling of late; Russian TU-25 bombers flying suspiciously close to Britain and Sweden, Chinese diesel sub popping up in the middle of a U.S. naval group exercise in the Pacific.)

Yes, the U.S. does police the world, but yes, the U.S. also prioritises what it does and also thinks of its own interests very much like what every other country is does (take care of it's own interests).

This man, Bill Whittle, a pilot, gives a very interesting historical perspective on how previous wars measure up to the present day <http://www.ejectejecteject.com/archives/000039.html>

As for the mop-up I would really have loved to seen the influx of brotherly Arab/Middle Eastern assistance into a state that was once ruled by a despot, but no, these oil-rich, gut-lacking states are too busy condemning the U.S., sending fighters into the north to oppose American troops and playing up a victimised rhetoric.


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